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Ness Notes (Jan 5)
Here's the simple strategy all sports bettors SHOULD have
employed over the recently completed 2005-06 bowl season. Rule
No. 1 was to take any underdog of six or more points. That would
have produced a record of 13-1 ATS, as only Louisville (at
plus-9 1/2) failed to cover in that pointspread range in the
Gator Bowl (lost 35-24 to Va Tech). That's a winning percentage
of 92.9 percent.
Also, one should have played each and every one of those 'dogs'
on the moneyline, as EIGHT of the 13 pointspread winners also
won their games SU. Lastly, all sports bettors should have
blindly played each bowl game 'over' the total, as 19 of the 28
games went over, for a winning percentage of 67.9 percent. See
how easy it SHOULD have been?
BIG conference or SMALL, the money is GREEN either way when you
WIN! I have two HUGE Conference Games of the Month on Thursday.
One in the Horizon League and the other in the Big-10. Get them
BOTH, right now. My free play for Thursday is Hofstra
minus-the-points hosting James Madison at 7:00 ET.
The national championship game turned into a "classic", after a
very slow start. Looking back, Reggie Bush is lucky the Heisman
voters voted prior to this game, as it's difficult to imagine
anyone NOT voting for Vince Young off his 467-yard performance
last night. After Bush's bone-headed lateral cost USC a chance
to go up 14-0 in the early second quarter, he was hardly a
factor in the game. Pete Carroll's decision to go for it on
4th-and-one at the Texas 17-yard line (up 7-0), was an early
momentum-changer as well.
Opponents of instant-replay have to be hiding their heads this
morning, as the system still has many flaws. "They" got it right
on the second-quarter interception of Leinart at the goal line
but never reviewed (why?) the play in which Young (whose knee
was CLEARLY DOWN around the 10!) had pitched back to a trailing
Selvin Young for a TD that put the Longhorns up 9-7. Then,
in
the most egregious error of the night, the "guys in the booth"
failed to rule that Texas' Jamaal Charles had caught the ball
(plus made a football move) and then fumbled. Rather, they
upheld the incomplete ruling on the field! At the time, USC led
31-23 (about 11 minutes left), and would have had the ball
around the Texas 40-yard line.
In the end though, USC saw it's 34-game winning streak snapped
plus lost its chance at an unprecedented third consecutive
national title, when it couldn't convert on a 4th-and-two play
from the Texas 45 with just over two minutes remaining. In four
previous second-half possessions, USC had TD drives of (7-62),
(9-74), (9-80) and (4-81).
In tonight's NBA, TNT features a doubleheader, but it's hardly
ready-for-primetime material. The Rockets are in Cleveland where
the Cavs are favored by 7 1/2 points and the total is 191 1/2.
In the nightcap, the Pacers visit Denver, where the Nuggets are
favored by eight with a total of 196.
College basketball's 46-game schedule is highlighted by ESPN2's
tripleheader of games, beginning at 7:00 ET. In the opener, it's
a Big East clash with 9-0 Villanova visiting 11-1 Louisville
('Cats are a three-point favorite with a total of 143 1/2). Next
up is the Big-10, where 12-2 Michigan St visits 14-0 Illinois
(Illini are favored by 6 1/2 with a total of 137). At 11:00 ET
(if you are still up), 12-1 Air Force hosts 8-3 BYU in a MWC
contest. The "Flyboys" are 6 1/2 -point favorites with a total
of 121.
An NFL season recap plus wild card coverage will be the major
focus of Friday's Saturday's and Sunday's Ness Notes. Ness Notes
are available by 1:00 ET Monday through Friday and 7:00 ET on
Saturday and Sunday.
About the author:
Larry Ness is a documented member of the Professional
Handicappers League. Read all of his articles at www.procappers.co
m/Larry_Ness.htm
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